03 — Where should we invest next?
A €15.0M envelope funds 9 interventions and cuts modelled risk by 30.4%. Another €5M adds only 0.6 points.
Scenario: modelled risk cut and costs, not a measured or approved result- FundedScenario: planning costs, not a measured or approved result
- 9
- of 24 candidates · €14.4M
- Modelled risk cutScenario: modelled risk cut, not a measured or approved result
- 30.4%
- collision, failure and closure risk
- Next €5M addsScenario: modelled extra risk cut, not a measured or approved result
- +0.6
- points of risk reduction
- Method
- HDM-4 · iRAP · inspection
- ranked by risk cut per €1M
Asset condition index · 0–100
Drainage at Ruta 27 and pavement at A23 are the weakest asset groups
| Concession | Pavement | Structures | Drainage | Barriers | Signage | ITS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transmontana | 74 | 81 | 62 | 78 | 83 | 71 |
| A23 Beira Interior | 58 | 66 | 55 | 72 | 70 | 68 |
| ACEGA / AP-53 | 79 | 84 | 76 | 81 | 85 | 77 |
| Pocahontas Parkway | 71 | 77 | 73 | 64 | 80 | 82 |
| Ruta 27 | 63 | 70 | 41 | 52 | 61 | 58 |
| M50 | 82 | 88 | 80 | 85 | 86 | 54 |
| Costa Arauco | 76 | 79 | 69 | 66 | 74 | 72 |
| Ruta Portuaria | 84 | 90 | 78 | 80 | 88 | 79 |
| Concesiones de Madrid | 80 | 86 | 77 | 83 | 84 | 81 |
Need for investmentLow · 80+70–7960–6950–59High · under 50
Financial exposure
Scenario: financial exposure estimate, not a measured or approved result€9.5M modelled at risk if nothing changes
- Deferred maintenance liability€6.2M
Open backlog valued at contract rates
- Warranties ending in 12 months€2.4M
37 assets · claim defects before expiry
- Contract deductions at risk (deduction risk)€0.9M
Next 6 months, from current KPI trends
Value at stakeDeduction risk
Ranked programme · top 10 of 24
Investment options
Scenario: planning costs and modelled risk cuts, not a measured or approved result
| Rank | Intervention | Driver | Evidence | Cost | Risk cut | Per €1M | Cumulative | In envelope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High-friction surfacing and lighting Pocahontas Parkway · km 6.2–6.8 WB | Safety | Collision register, iRAP | €0.4M | 6.8 pts | 16.2 | €0.4M | Funded |
| 2 | Drainage rehabilitation Ruta 27 · km 30–45 | Resilience | Inspections, flood history | €1.9M | 9.2 pts | 5.0 | €2.3M | Funded |
| 3 | Rock-fall netting Transmontana · km 64 | Resilience | Principal inspection | €0.8M | 1.8 pts | 2.3 | €3.0M | Funded |
| 4 | Bridge joint replacement, 3 structures A23 Beira Interior | Condition | Principal inspections | €1.1M | 2.4 pts | 2.2 | €4.2M | Funded |
| 5 | Pavement resurfacing A23 Beira Interior · km 98–118 | Condition | HDM-4 model | €3.9M | 5.1 pts | 1.3 | €8.1M | Funded |
| 6 | Safety barrier upgrade Ruta 27 · km 50–62 | Safety | iRAP star rating | €1.6M | 2.1 pts | 1.3 | €9.7M | Funded |
| 7 | Pavement preservation, surface dressing ACEGA / AP-53 · km 10–40 | Condition | HDM-4 model | €1.4M | 1.1 pts | 0.8 | €11.1M | Funded |
| 8 | Junction redesign Costa Arauco · km 22 | Safety | Collision register | €2.3M | 1.4 pts | 0.6 | €13.4M | Funded |
| 9 | Culvert lining, 6 sites Transmontana | Condition | Inspections | €1.0M | 0.5 pts | 0.5 | €14.4M | Funded |
| 10 | VMS sign renewal, 14 signs M50 | Contract | Asset age, contract | €2.0M | 0.6 pts | 0.3 | €16.4M | Below the line |
Pavement options use HDM-4 deterioration models; safety options use iRAP star ratings and the collision register. Costs are planning estimates at 2027 prices and risk cuts are modelled: both are scenario assumptions, not approved budgets or measured results.
Highway structures · Condition PI and backlog
Sample: illustrative inspections, thresholds and costs, illustrative onlyIn the sample data, the structures repair backlog is €13.0M, down from €17.7M in 2021
- Stock Condition PISample: illustrative inspections, illustrative only
- 85
- Goodaverage, by value
- Critical Condition PI
- 72
- Fairworst critical element
- Structures backlogSample: illustrative repair costs, illustrative only
- €13.1M
- 4.9% of €269M value, including €51k of overdue inspections
- Critical element below fair
- 62
- of 171 bridges, culverts, walls and gantries
Structures by Condition PI band
Very good 37.4%Good 13.5%Fair 26.3%Poor 22.8%Very poor 0.0%
Repair backlog at each year end
| Year | Backlog | Stock Condition PI |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | €13.7M | 85 |
| 2017 | €14.2M | 84 |
| 2018 | €16.6M | 83 |
| 2019 | €17.1M | 82 |
| 2020 | €17.6M | 83 |
| 2021 | €17.7M | 82 |
| 2022 | €15.3M | 83 |
| 2023 | €13.9M | 84 |
| 2024 | €12.9M | 85 |
| 2025 | €14.4M | 85 |
| 2026 | €13.0M | 85 |
Each structure counts at its latest inspection before the year end, at 2026 prices. Overdue inspections are excluded.
By concession
| Concession | Structures | PI average | PI critical | Backlog | % of value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transmontana | 29 | 89 | 85 | €1.2M | 2.5% |
| A23 Beira Interior | 32 | 79 | 55 | €2.1M | 5.9% |
| ACEGA / AP-53 | 18 | 90 | 77 | €616k | 2.5% |
| Pocahontas Parkway | 9 | 93 | 77 | €352k | 2.7% |
| Ruta 27 | 25 | 71 | 45 | €6.2M | 13.3% |
| M50 | 19 | 90 | 85 | €142k | 0.4% |
| Costa Arauco | 27 | 81 | 72 | €2.3M | 8.2% |
| Ruta Portuaria | 6 | 98 | 93 | €1,800 | 0.0% |
| Concesiones de Madrid | 6 | 95 | 80 | €67k | 0.4% |
By structure type
| Type | Structures | PI average | PI critical | Backlog | % of value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridge | 38 | 86 | 72 | €10.1M | 4.2% |
| Culvert | 60 | 80 | 71 | €856k | 11.2% |
| Retaining wall | 42 | 80 | 75 | €1.4M | 8.0% |
| Sign gantry | 31 | 72 | 55 | €722k | 12.9% |
Condition PI and Structures Backlog after the CSS Bridges Group guidance for highway structures (2007): element severity and extent, weighted by importance, then by replacement value in place of dimension × asset value factor. Backlog is repair work past each element’s intervention threshold, plus overdue principal inspections. Inspections, thresholds and costs are illustrative demo data.